The Spring run recorded a measurable deterioration from October 2025. Trade fragmentation and health-surveillance degradation pushed the conditional probabilities toward Lost Control. Two system flags were active and a third risk signal was building.
The original model did not yet estimate how likely DTR or LIR were. It reported the outcomes conditional on each posture.
| Horizon | Posture | Full empowerment | Managed disruption | Uneven transition | Lost control |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | DTR | 3% | 18% | 57% | 22% |
| 2030 | LIR | 0% | 2% | 22% | 76% |
| 2040 | DTR | 7% | 10% | 40% | 43% |
| 2040 | LIR | 0% | 1% | 7% | 92% |
| 2050 | DTR | 14% | 6% | 27% | 53% |
| 2050 | LIR | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% |
The v11.9 reading was driven by persistent and corroborated signals, not single events.
Tariff volatility and policy fragmentation persisted across shipping, connectivity and trade-policy evidence, weakening the coordination outlook.
WHO FluNet reporting coverage weakened across parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, activating the Health Surveillance Flag.
The Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index remained elevated, raising the corroboration threshold for positive signals in exposed levers.
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator softened and employment evidence weakened in lower-income groups, but the new Economic Stress Flag did not yet meet its activation rule.
Open-weight model proliferation broadened access, but the signal was not persistent enough to produce a positive probability movement.
Flags do not create outcomes by themselves. They make positive evidence harder to credit until the underlying stress clears.
Coverage degradation meant positive health nudges were capped until sustained recovery.
Elevated geopolitical stress increased the persistence requirement for positive readings.
Leading indicators were weakening but had not met the formal trigger.
No broad improvement was visible across household buffers, profit participation and inequality trends.
This page preserves the Spring run as a historical record. The Fall 2026 v12 architecture replaces several of these proxies with more direct measures.
The Spring model used public evidence from the IMF, World Bank, UN, IEA, WHO, OECD, ILO, NOAA, M-Lab, CAIDA, RWI/ISL, UNCTAD, WTO, the Federal Reserve and major grid operators. Odds moved only after persistence and corroboration. Every accepted movement was logged and reversible.
The current model architecture is v12.0. See the Fall 2026 page for the updated measures and the new posture-likelihood layer.